CDC: Flu Outbreak Could Be Waning

The flu season appears to be waning in some parts of the country, but that doesn't mean it won't make a comeback in the next few weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Five fewer states reported high flu activity levels in the first week of January than the 29 that reported high activity levels in the last week of December, according to the CDC's weekly flu report. This week, 24 states reported high illness levels, 16 reported moderate levels, five reported low levels and one reported minimal levels, suggesting that the flu season peaked in the last week of December.

"It may be decreasing in some areas, but that's hard to predict," CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden said in a Friday morning teleconference. "Trends only in the next week or two will show whether we have in fact crossed the peak."

The flu season usually peaks in February or March, not December, said Dr. Jon Abramson, who specializes in pediatric infectious diseases at Wake Forest Baptist Health in North Carolina. He said the season started early with a dominant H3N2 strain, which was last seen a decade ago, in 2002-03. That year, the flu season also ended early.

Click here to see how this flu season stacks up against other years.

Cheryl Evans/The Arizona Republic/AP Photo

Increasing Flu Cases: Best Measures to Ensure Your Family's Health Watch Video

Because of the holiday season, Frieden said the data may have been skewed.

For instance, Connecticut appeared to be having a lighter flu season than other northeastern states at the end of December, but the state said it could have been a result of college winter break. College student health centers account for a large percentage of flu reports in Connecticut, but they've been closed since the fall semester ended, said William Gerrish, a spokesman for the state's department of public health.

The flu season arrived about a month early this year in parts of the South and the East, but it may only just be starting to take hold of states in the West, Frieden said. California is still showing "minimal" flu on the CDC's map, but that doesn't mean it will stay that way.

Click here to read about how flu has little to do with cold weather.

"It's not surprising. Influenza ebbs and flows during the flu season," Frieden said. "The only thing predictable about the flu is that it is unpredictable."

Dr. William Schaffner, chair of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tenn., said he was expecting California's seeming good luck with the flu to be over this week.

"Flu is fickle, we say," Schaffner said. "Influenza can be spotty. It can be more severe in one community than another for reasons incompletely understood."

Early CDC estimates indicate that this year's flu vaccine is 62 percent effective, meaning people who have been vaccinated are 62 percent less likely to need to see a doctor for flu treatment, Frieden said.

Although the shot has been generally believed to be more effective for children than adults, there's not enough data this year to draw conclusions yet.

"The flu vaccine is far from perfect, but it's still by far the best tool we have to prevent flu," Frieden said, adding that most of the 130 million vaccine doses have already been administered. "We're hearing of shortages of the vaccine, so if you haven't been vaccinated and want to be, it's better late than never."

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Personal assistant for your emails streamlines your life

IT'S one of the luxuries of the corporate elite: a personal assistant who takes your overflowing inbox and turns it into a simple to-do list. Many people would love such help, if only they could afford it. But what if the cost was less than $2 a day? That's the idea behind software that uses crowdsourced workers to manage email overload.

GmailValet, developed by Nicolas Kokkalis and colleagues at Stanford University in California, works by connecting a Gmail account with oDesk, a crowd-labour web platform that draws upon a relatively skilled workforce. Users can deal with privacy fears by deploying filters that limit the access given to oDesk workers. All emails from family members can be excluded from the system, for example.

Once the workers are in, they examine new emails and, if appropriate, extract a task from the message, which appears in a to-do list that sits alongside the inbox on the GmailValet website, such as reminding the user to respond to a meeting request, for example. Users are encouraged to provide feedback on the tasks, so that the assistants can better understand their needs.

In initial tests, the assistants were paid the California minimum wage of $8 per hour. The researchers suggest that a single assistant could monitor dozens of inboxes simultaneously, though. If that proves to be the case, the service could end up costing each user as little as $1.80 per day.

The tests also revealed that users benefited from the to-do lists: the task-completion rate for those who worked with assistants was nearly 60 per cent, compared with less than 30 per cent for control participants, who had to create their own task lists. One user described the appearance of the tasks as "like magic".

"This is an important step forward in enabling the crowd to work on private and sensitive information," says Aniket Kittur, a computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. "It opens the door for the crowd helping us with our personal lives in ways we wouldn't have imagined even a few years ago."

The work will be presented next month at the Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing conference in San Antonio, Texas. The system is available to try out for free at gmailvalet.com.

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Afghan Taliban welcome US "zero option" on troops

KABUL: The Taliban have welcomed news from Washington that the US might withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan next year, saying the American public was pressing for an end to "this aimless war".

The comment came ahead of a crucial meeting between President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the White House on Friday that is expected to focus on how many American soldiers will remain in Afghanistan.

The US and its NATO allies have long planned to withdraw their combat troops by the end of 2014, although it has been widely expected that Washington will leave a force to train, advise and assist the Afghan army and police.

But Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, told reporters on Tuesday that Obama would not rule out any ideas, including the so-called zero option -- pulling out all the remaining 66,000 US troops.

US military officers privately said comments about a total withdrawal were primarily designed as a tactic in negotiations with Kabul over a security agreement, which includes immunity for American troops remaining behind.

Taliban insurgents, however, seized on Rhodes' comments as a sign that the administration was under pressure from the American people to pull out completely from the nation's longest war.

"We appreciate this step of the American public and all those societies who pressurise their government in the issue of Afghanistan as to bring this aimless war to an end and to evacuate all their troops," the Taliban said in a statement on their website.

Opinion polls for several years have shown that the US public is tired of the human and financial cost of the Afghanistan war, initially launched after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

- AFP/xq

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Google revs Chrome for Android faster with new beta release

Android users who want to live an edgier life now can try a beta version of Chrome.

Google yesterday released the Chrome 25 beta for Android 4.x smartphones and
tablets, a version number in sync with the release for personal computers. Previously, the only option was the stable version of Chrome for
Android, which is still way back at version 18.

The Chrome for Android beta is available on the Google Play app store, but only by following that link -- it's not visible in Google Play's search, Google said. The beta version can be installed and run side by side with the stable version.

Google has been working to put Chrome for Android on the same six-week update cycle as the personal computer version of the browser, and it looks like this release is part of that change. The Chrome 25 beta brings a number of new features, but Google warns of sluggish performance and some other problems.

Among the new features, according to Chrome developer Peter Beverloo:

• A new "text autosizing" technique for formatting text on mobile-device screens, drawing in part upon "font inflation" work by Mozilla. Sometimes it seems to cause Chrome to display different areas of text in mismatched font sizes, though.

• Faster JavaScript performance trough use of a newer version of Google's V8 software.

• A range of developer-oriented features such as CSS filters for visual effects, dynamic viewport units for better handling of screen-size and pixel-size variations, IndexedDB for offline data storage and other data-handling needs, and flexbox layout abilities for more adaptable formatting.

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Google and Twitter Help Track Influenza Outbreaks

This flu season could be the longest and worst in years. So far 18 children have died from flu-related symptoms, and 2,257 people have been hospitalized.

Yesterday Boston Mayor Thomas Menino declared a citywide public health emergency, with roughly 700 confirmed flu cases—ten times the number the city saw last year.

"It arrived five weeks early, and it's shaping up to be a pretty bad flu season," said Lyn Finelli, who heads the Influenza Outbreak Response Team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Boston isn't alone. According to the CDC, 41 states have reported widespread influenza activity, and in the last week of 2012, 5.6 percent of doctor's office visits across the country were for influenza-like illnesses. The severity likely stems from this year's predominant virus: H3N2, a strain known to severely affect children and the elderly. Finelli notes that the 2003-2004 flu season, also dominated by H3N2, produced similar numbers. (See "Are You Prepped? The Influenza Roundup.")

In tracking the flu, physicians and public health officials have a host of new surveillance tools at their disposal thanks to crowdsourcing and social media. Such tools let them get a sense of the flu's reach in real time rather than wait weeks for doctor's offices and state health departments to report in.

Pulling data from online sources "is no different than getting information on over-the-counter medication or thermometer purchases [to track against an outbreak]," said Philip Polgreen, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa.

The most successful of these endeavors, Google Flu Trends, analyzes flu-related Internet search terms like "flu symptoms" or "flu medication" to estimate flu activity in different areas. It tracks flu outbreaks globally.

Another tool, HealthMap, which is sponsored by Boston Children's Hospital, mines online news reports to track outbreaks in real time. Sickweather draws from posts on Twitter and Facebook that mention the flu for its data.

People can be flu-hunters themselves with Flu Near You, a project that asks people to report their symptoms once a week. So far more than 38,000 people have signed up for this crowdsourced virus tracker. And of course, there's an app for that.

Both Finelli, a Flu Near You user, and Polgreen find the new tools exciting but agree that they have limits. "It's not as if we can replace traditional surveillance. It's really just a supplement, but it's timely," said Polgreen.

When people have timely warning that there's flu in the community, they can get vaccinated, and hospitals can plan ahead. According to a 2012 study in Clinical Infectious Diseases, Google Flu Trends has shown promise predicting emergency room flu traffic. Some researchers are even using a combination of the web database and weather data to predict when outbreaks will peak.

As for the current flu season, it's still impossible to predict week-to-week peaks and troughs. "We expect that it will last a few more weeks, but we can never tell how bad it's going to get," said Finelli.

Hospitals are already taking precautionary measures. One Pennsylvania hospital erected a separate emergency room tent for additional flu patients. This week, several Illinois hospitals went on "bypass," alerting local first responders that they're at capacity—due to an uptick in both flu and non-flu cases—so that patients will be taken to alternative facilities, if possible.

In the meantime, the CDC advises vaccination, first and foremost. On the bright side, the flu vaccine being used this year is a good match for the H3N2 strain. Though Finelli cautions, "Sometimes drifted strains pop up toward the end of the season."

It looks like there won't be shortages of seasonal flu vaccine like there have been in past years. HealthMap sports a Flu Vaccine Finder to make it a snap to find a dose nearby. And if the flu-shot line at the neighborhood pharmacy seems overwhelming, more health departments and clinics are offering drive-through options.

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Judge: Holmes Can Face Trial for Aurora Shooting

Jan 10, 2013 8:45pm

(Arapahoe County Sheriff/AP Photo)

In a ruling that comes as little surprise, the judge overseeing the Aurora, Colo., theater massacre has ordered that there is enough evidence against James Holmes to proceed to a trial.

In an order posted late Thursday, Judge William Sylvester wrote that “the People have carried their burden of proof and have established that there is probable cause to believe that Defendant committed the crimes charged.”

The ruling came after a three-day preliminary hearing this week that revealed new details about how Holmes allegedly planned for and carried out the movie theater shooting, including how investigators say he amassed an arsenal of guns and ammunition, how he booby-trapped his apartment to explode, and his bizarre behavior after his arrest.

PHOTOS: Colorado ‘Dark Knight Rises’ Theater Shooting

Holmes is charged with 166 counts, including murder, attempted murder and other charges related to the July 20 shooting that left 12 people dead and 58 wounded by gunfire. An additional 12 people suffered non-gunshot injuries.

One of the next legal steps is an arraignment, at which Holmes will enter a plea. The arraignment was originally expected to take place Friday morning.

Judge Sylvester indicated through a court spokesman that he would allow television and still cameras into the courtroom, providing the outside world the first images of Holmes since a July 23 hearing. Plans for cameras in court, however, were put on hold Thursday afternoon.

“The defense has notified the district attorney that it is not prepared to proceed to arraignment in this case by Friday,” wrote public defenders Daniel King, Tamara Brady and Kristen Nelson Thursday afternoon in a document objecting to cameras in court.

A hearing in the case will still take place Friday morning. In his order, Judge Sylvester said it should technically be considered an arraignment, but noted the defense has requested a continuance.  Legal experts expect the judge will grant the continuance, delaying the arraignment and keeping cameras out of court for now.

Sylvester also ordered that Holmes be held without bail.

Holmes’ attorneys have said in court that the former University of Colorado neuroscience student is mentally ill. The district attorney overseeing the case has not yet announced whether Holmes, now 25, can face the death penalty.

SHOWS: World News

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Smartphones make identifying endangered animals easy

Everyday mobile tech takes the legwork out of tracking hard-to-find animals, and makes life easier for field biologists

FIELD biology is notoriously laborious. In one famous 1982 study, Smithsonian entomologist Terry Erwin counted by hand the number of insect species in one hectare of forest canopy in Panama. By extrapolation Erwin estimated the total biodiversity of Earth's insects. What if your smartphone could take some of the strain?

Harvard biologist and computer scientist Walter Scheirer has devised a machine vision system that automatically recognises and counts specific animals and runs on a Motorola Droid X2 smartphone. This will help biologists make quicker, more accurate judgements about the health of delicate ecosystems.

Two years ago, Edwards Air Force Base in the Mojave desert, California, put out a call for a cheap way to monitor the animals that live there. The area is one of the last refuges for the endangered desert tortoises as well as the threatened Mojave ground squirrels (see map). Keeping an eye on the health of the animal population in such a remote location is time-consuming and expensive. So Scheirer developed detection and classification algorithms capable of identifying tortoises and squirrels with nothing more than a standard smartphone.

Automated camera traps already exist, but they are not selective enough. "Right now, we have to manually go through every photo to identify species and separate photos of interest from false photos. It's a very laborious task," says Princeton conservation biologist Siva Sundaresan, who works with Grévy's zebras in Kenya. He says Scheirer's method is potentially very useful to biologists.

But how does a phone tell the difference between a squirrel and a rock or a tumbleweed? Scheirer's system starts off by scanning its environment for objects that could be the animals it wants. It looks for clumps of pixels that are new to the scene, then examines them to decide whether they represent any of the animals it has been trained to recognise. Rather than checking each individual pixel, Scheirer's algorithms analyse the content of a frame of video and look for patterns of pixels that identify the animal. The algorithms don't need intensive processing and so run well on smartphones.

A paper due to be presented at the Workshop on the Applications of Computer Vision in Clearwater, Florida, later this month shows how well the algorithms work, with the system able to distinguish between three different species of ground squirrel 78 per cent of the time, even though they are almost identical. Scheirer says that the algorithms have been tweaked and that the recognition rate is now around 85 per cent.

Scheirer says his goal is to build a cheap, easy-to-use system that can automatically detect animals in any environment. More field trials are scheduled for next month, and the team aims to deliver a finished system to the US Air Force by 2014.

Princeton population biologist Dan Rubenstein says machine vision systems will also help us understand delicate ecosystems in finer detail. "You won't be generalising from such small scale to such a massive scale," he says. "We're going to be able to save ecosystems."

Another system presented at the conference, called Hotspotter, recognises individual animals like zebras and giraffes by their stripes and spots, although it still needs some human guidance, unlike the Mojave desert system. Rubenstein, who works on Hotspotter, says that systems like this will allow biologists to look at animals and their actions on an individual basis. "We could start to build massive databases of who's who, and how they move in time. We can use social networks to figure out how they relate to each other."

If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.

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Australia firefighters race to beat rising heat

YASS: Australian firefighters raced to control a series of blazes on Thursday before a forecast rise in temperatures brings the risk of more infernos, as dramatic accounts of survival emerged.

Fires have been raging across southeast Australia for nearly a week. While many have been contained, 120 are still burning and at least 17 remain out of control in the country's most populous state, New South Wales.

Cooler weather that brought some relief on Wednesday continued in many parts Thursday. But temperatures are set to soar again to well over 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) on Friday, piling pressure on firefighters.

In Tasmania, residents of the fishing village of Dunalley, where 90 homes and businesses were destroyed, could be allowed to go home on Friday, police said, as gripping stories of survival emerged.

"We saw tornadoes of fire just coming across towards us and the next thing we knew everything was on fire, everywhere all around us," Tim Holmes, who took refuge in the sea under a jetty with his five young grandchildren, told the ABC.

"We were all just heads, water up to our chins just trying to breathe because... the atmosphere was so incredibly toxic." The family survived but are now homeless.

NSW Rural Fire Service commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said crews were working flat-out containing blazes before the heat returned.

"It's about focusing on getting as much contained and consolidated as we can ahead of a return to hotter and dryer conditions dominating much of NSW over the coming days," Fitzsimmons told ABC television.

"We're looking at temperatures across much of NSW into low-to-mid 40s and extending into the high 40s on Saturday.

"The only reprieve, if you can call it that, is that we are not expecting significant wind strengths to build."

The blazes have scorched more than 350,000 hectares (865,000 acres) of land in New South Wales alone, with one fire burning just two kilometres (1.2 miles) from a former weapons range littered with unexploded bombs.

The 5,840-hectare Deans Gap fire is near the Tianjara plateau which, until the mid-1970s, was used by the army as a practice bombing range.

"If it was required, they'd be looking to put in a firebreak in that area," a New South Wales Rural Fire Service spokeswoman told AFP.

Were the flames to reach the plateau south of Sydney, it could complicate firefighting efforts, with the unexploded bombs making water-drops impossible.

The fires are so large they can be seen from space, with astronaut Chris Hadfield uploading images of "streamers of smoke visible all across the country" to Twitter from the International Space Station.

While more than 100 homes were razed by fires in Tasmania state last weekend, only a handful have since been destroyed nationwide and no deaths have been reported.

The biggest impact has been on farmers, with vast amounts of pasture, crops and animal feed lost, as well as thousands of head of stock and sheds and outbuildings.

One of the worst-hit areas is Yass Shire west of Canberra where a fire has so far burnt out 16,000 hectares and killed 10,000 sheep.

As well as New South Wales, fires continue to burn in the states of Victoria, Tasmania and Queensland.

Wildfires are a fact of life in arid Australia, where 173 people died in the 2009 Black Saturday firestorm, the nation's worst natural disaster of modern times.

Most are ignited naturally, but in Sydney's west three teenage boys were charged with deliberately lighting a fire on Tuesday, and on Wednesday a man was charged after sparks from his angle grinder caused a blaze.

- AFP/al

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Google's Schmidt presses North Korean officials for open Web

Google's Eric Schmidt (right) upon his arrival in North Korea earlier this week with former N.M. Gov. Bill Richardson.

(Credit:
CBS News/Screenshot by CNET)

Eric Schmidt wrapped up a controversial visit to North Korea on Thursday, saying that his private delegation warned officials that global Internet access was key to developing its economy.

"As the world becomes increasingly connected, their decision to be virtually isolated is very much going to affect their view of the world," he told reporters upon his return to Beijing, according to a Wall Street Journal account. Lack of such access would "make it harder for them to catch up economically. We made that alternative very, very clear," he added.

Despite official U.S. opposition to the visit, Google's executive chairman flew to the reclusive nation on Monday as part of a delegation led by former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who described the trip as a "private humanitarian mission."

"We had a good opportunity to talk about expanding the Internet and cell phones in the DPRK," Richardson told the Associated Press before departing for Beijing.

The U.S. State Department had discouraged the visit, saying that the timing was not right for the delegation to visit the country, which is subject to U.S. economic sanctions. A department spokesperson cited recent missile launches by North Korea as a reason for opposing the visit

During the visit, the delegation, which also included Jared Cohen, head of Google Ideas, got a tour of a computer lab at Kim Il Sung University Pyongyang, where a student showed how he goes online to look at reading material from Cornell University.

It's unclear whether the delegation had the opportunity to inquire about Kenneth Bae, a Korean-American whose arrest on unspecified charges was announced by the North Koreans last month.

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Embryonic Sharks Freeze to Avoid Detection

Jane J. Lee

Although shark pups are born with all the equipment they'll ever need to defend themselves and hunt down food, developing embryos still stuck in their egg cases are vulnerable to predators. But a new study finds that even these baby sharks can detect a potential predator, and play possum to avoid being eaten.

Every living thing gives off a weak electrical field. Sharks can sense this with a series of pores—called the ampullae of Lorenzini—on their heads and around their eyes, and some species rely on this electrosensory ability to find food buried in the seafloor. (See pictures of electroreceptive fish.)

Two previous studies on the spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) and the clearnose skate (Raja eglanteria)—a relative of sharks—found similar freezing behavior in their young. But new research by shark biologist and doctoral student Ryan Kempster at the University of Western Australia has given scientists a more thorough understanding of this behavior.

It all started because Kempster wanted to build a better shark repellent. Since he needed to know how sharks respond to electrical fields, Kempster decided to use embryos. "It's very hard to test this in the field because you need to get repeated responses," he said. And you can't always get the same shark to cooperate multiple times. "But we could use embryos because they're contained within an egg case."

Cloaking Themselves

So Kempster got his hands on 11 brownbanded bamboo shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) embryos and tested their reactions to the simulated weak electrical field of a predator. (Popular pictures: Bamboo shark swallowed whole—by another shark.)

In a study published today in the journal PLoS One, Kempster and his colleagues report that all of the embryonic bamboo sharks, once they reached later stages of development, reacted to the electrical field by ceasing gill movements (essentially, holding their breath), curling their tails around their bodies, and freezing.

A bamboo shark embryo normally beats its tail to move fresh seawater in and out of its egg case. But that generates odor cues and small water currents that can give away its position. The beating of its gills as it breathes also generates an electrical field that predators can use to find it.

"So it cloaks itself," said neuroecologist Joseph Sisneros, at the University of Washington in Seattle, who was not involved in the study. "[The embryo] shuts down any odor cues, water movement, and its own electrical signal."

Sisneros, who conducted the previous clearnose skate work, is delighted to see that this shark species also reacts to external electrical fields and said it would be great to see whether this is something all shark, skate, and ray embryos do.

Marine biologist Stephen Kajiura, at Florida Atlantic University, is curious to know how well the simulated electrical fields compare to the bamboo shark's natural predators—the experimental field was on the higher end of the range normally given off.

"[But] they did a good job with [the study]," Kajiura said. "They certainly did a more thorough study than anyone else has done."

Electrifying Protection?

In addition to the freezing behavior he recorded in the bamboo shark embryos, Kempster found that the shark pups remembered the electrical field signal when it was presented again within 40 minutes and that they wouldn't respond as strongly to subsequent exposures as they did initially.

This is important for developing shark repellents, he said, since some of them use electrical fields to ward off the animals. "So if you were using a shark repellent, you would need to change the current over a 20- to 30-minute period so the shark doesn't get used to that field."

Kempster envisions using electrical fields to not only keep humans safe but to protect sharks as well. Shark populations have been on the decline for decades, due partly to ending up as bycatch, or accidental catches, in the nets and on the longlines of fishers targeting other animals.

A 2006 study estimated that as much as 70 percent of landings, by weight, in the Spanish surface longline fleet were sharks, while a 2007 report found that eight million sharks are hooked each year off the coast of southern Africa. (Read about the global fisheries crisis in National Geographic magazine.)

"If we can produce something effective, it could be used in the fishing industry to reduce shark bycatch," Kempster said. "In [America] at the moment, they're doing quite a lot of work trying to produce electromagnetic fish hooks." The eventual hope is that if these hooks repel the sharks, they won't accidentally end up on longlines.

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